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DTN Midday Grain Comments 10/28 10:59
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Lower at Midday
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 8
to 9 cents lower; wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday Monday; soybean futures are 8
to 9 cents lower; wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents lower. The U.S. stock market
is firmer at midday with the S&P 23 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index is 4
points lower. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is sharply
lower with crude down 3.90 with natural gas .25 lower. Livestock trade is
mixed. Precious metals are mixed with gold off .70.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents lower at midday with trade drifting back
toward the middle of the range with continued harvest progress expected until
midweek along with mixed spread action. Ethanol margins will see some pressure
from unleaded values sliding back toward the lows but should remain rangebound
otherwise. Weather should remain open for most to keep harvest moving well
ahead of normal toward midweek before heavy rains for the center of the Corn
Belt slow things. Monday's weekly Crop Progress report is report expected to
show harvest around 80% complete. The daily export wire remained active with
120,000 metric tons (mt) of corn to unknown with 124,000 mt to Japan. Weekly
export inspections were solid at 823,664 mt with year-to-date pace 33% ahead of
last year. Basis action is flattening out at this point in harvest with some
areas more bottlenecked than others. On the December chart, the 20-day moving
average at $4.16 7/8 is resistance again after we faded Friday, with the recent
low at $3.98 below that.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 8 to 9 cents lower at midday with trade fading back
toward the lows with broad product weakness weighing on things to start the
week. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 lower and oil is 160 to 170 points lower. Weather
should allow for harvest cleanup through midweek. Weekly crop progress is
expected to show harvest 90% complete. There are no major issues to hinder
planting in South America. Export inspections were strong at 2.394 million
metric tons (mmt) as we pull ahead of last year's pace at 102% of a year ago.
Basis should start to recover further from harvest pressure as January becomes
front month. On the November chart, trade has support at the fresh lows at
$9.68 scored last week with the 20-day moving average at $10.07 the next level
up.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 7 to 9 cents lower at midday with the expected shift
wetter for the Plains into early November along with soft row-crop action.
Planting and emergence are expected to still be lagging the 5-year average on
the weekly report with first reported conditions to be mediocre Monday ahead of
the rains. MATIF wheat is flat after giving back early gains with the dollar
coming just off the highs. Weekly export inspections were rangebound at 248,534
mt, as we stay well ahead of last year's pace, at 133% of a year ago. On the KC
December chart, support is the lower Bollinger Band at $5.71, which we are
below at midday, and resistance the 20-day moving average at $5.95.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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